Under the Goldman deal, an independent evaluator reaches at random into the pool of young men leaving lockups or probation and assigns some names to Roca. Later, to calculate payments, the evaluator will compare that group’s recidivism rate against that of the men who didn’t get services, to gauge whether Roca’s fared better.

First in Line

Regardless of Roca’s performance, Goldman will get 5 percent annual interest on its loans. As senior lender, it’s first in line to earn back its principal, triggered by the 22 percent drop in days that participants are incarcerated as well as their success in getting and keeping jobs. With a 40 percent drop in incarceration, Massachusetts would repay the investors $22 million, the same amount it would save. Above that, the state would begin keeping part of the savings.

Rosa learned about the Dunkin’ Donuts shooting March 10 when a colleague texted her two hours before she was due at work. With one hand on the steering wheel, she barreled down Broadway. Her orange Roca sweatshirt made her stand out like a hunter trying to avoid getting shot near a lake full of waterfowl. She parked her 12-passenger Roca van outside a housing project on Cooledge Street, home to many of her flock.

“You need to stay away from this,” she told one of them, peppering her pleas with Spanish. “What is your safety plan?”

From her charges, her fellow youth workers and cops, Rosa soon learned that the shooting about 10 p.m. involved members of the Hill Park and Cooledge Street hoods -- like gangs, but smaller -- attacking a young man who hung out with Bloods. It was the retaliation she’d feared.

Gun in Waistband

A witness told investigators that Aguilar and four others arrived at Dunkin’ Donuts and took turns punching the victim in the face, according to the police report. One pulled a gun from his waistband and shot the victim. Revere police tracked down Aguilar that night. A judge set bail at $50,000.

Police didn’t find a gun on Aguilar. A different man had pulled the trigger, the witness in the police report said. On April 8, prosecutors dropped charges against Aguilar, citing insufficient evidence.

Massachusetts can’t add him to its savings tally yet. Aguilar is due back in court tomorrow to face a misdemeanor drug charge stemming from the marijuana arrest in June 2013.

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