Some measures of confidence and activity have also stabilized after plunging in the previous two months, helping to embed the idea that the euro-area economy is at the trough of the slump. German business expectations improved in May, and a regional measure of manufacturing and services activity jumped from a record low.
On Thursday, the European Commission’s euro-wide sentiment index showed a small pickup in May.
In the U.K., the country is moving into a key month in June. Schools will be allowed to restart, and there’s a timetable for stores to open their doors again after two brutal months. But it’s going to be cautious progress. The U.K. has overtaken Italy and Spain in terms of virus cases, and has the highest number of deaths in Europe.
While Germany has already reopened restaurants, the U.K. may not do so until at least July. That’s captured in data from booking website OpenTable, which shows a bounce in German dining versus the U.K.
Despite the emergence of activity, most economists have discarded the idea of a V-shaped recovery.
Social distancing rules are still going to impinge on everything from how factories operate to consumers’ willingness to visit stores, car showrooms and bars. Many temporary job losses will prove permanent and debt-ridden companies will be forced to close for good.
That leaves economists warning 2022 may be the earliest before economies recover the ground they have lost despite the euphoria in stocks.
“There is divergence between Wall Street and Main Street,” Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU Stern School of Business, told Bloomberg Television. “The recovery is going to be anemic. Something like a U.”
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.