Hennessy CIO Doesn't Buy Dour Equity Market Predictions

Next year will be a good one for the economy and the stock market as corporations and individuals move money from cash and bond into equities. The economy is also primed to grow at a 2 percent or possibly 3 percent annual rate, with little chance of recession. Japan’s economy will also be vigorously growing and it is expected to see a dramatic expansion of its tourism industry.

Those optimistic predictions were made by Hennessy Funds officials at a meeting on Thursday in Manhattan. Neil Hennessy, the fund’s CIO, president and portfolio manager, depicted the United States on the verge of another golden equities period, one that would rival the 1980s. He said companies will be turning away from recent strategies to drive up stock prices. Hennessy said the approach of using excess cash to buy back stock or buying competitors has been almost exhausted. Now, he added, corporations will likely be using cash to expand operations.

“To drive that top line of sales, you’re going to find other ways than acquisitions. Hiring will be picking up in the next 12 to 18 months,” he predicted.

Hennessy’s flagship Cornerstone Mid Cap 30 Fund has returned 9.15 percent a year in the investor class shares over the past 10 years.

“Recession seems unlikely. Jobless claims are at the lowest point in four decades,” added Brian Peery, who runs the Hennessy’s mid cap fund. His strategy is to dispassionately follow a strategy of “buying value and adding momentum,” Peery said, adding he likes consumer stocks such as J.C. Penney and Goodyear.

Hennessy expects the six-year bull market to resume, despite predictions to the contrary.

“People say the market should come down, but they don’t give you a reason,” Hennessy said. The basics are in good shape, especially the 95 percent to 96 percent of American companies that are primarily dependent on domestic sales, which will not be affected by the strong dollar, he said.

Besides corporate expansion, including a financial sector that is in much better shape, the growth in the stock market, Hennessy said, will come from the individual investor and the consumer. It will also come from the considerable savings that the consumer is receiving owing to cheaper oil prices.

He said annual 2 percent GDP growth could increase if the government finds more effective tax and health-care policies. Hennessy also noted that hundreds of billions of dollars have been taken out of the stock market over the past five years and only 55 percent of individuals own stocks.