It should be noted, Selzer said, that most poll participants aren’t stock experts.
“We’re asking them whether they are optimistic or pessimistic about the market,” she said. “They are giving us a sense of their mood. It’s a snapshot in time of how they feel today.”
In the past decade, there have been at least a couple instances where a year of gains in the U.S. stock market followed a December or early January poll where a sizable portion of Americans predicted equities would be up a year later.
In a January 2014 Gallup Poll, 35 percent said stocks would be higher a year later, while 39 percent said about the same and 21 percent said lower. The S&P 500 Index moved up 11.4 percent in 2014.
A December 2009 Gallup Poll had 52 percent saying they expected the market would be higher a year later, while 32 percent said lower and 14 percent said about the same. In 2010, the S&P 500 Index gained 12.8 percent.
Market Prospects
The bullishness extends across all levels of income, with 53 percent of those in the lowest income group -- those having annual household incomes before taxes of less than $50,000 -- saying they are optimistic; that’s about even to the 49 percent of the top income group -- $100,000 or more -- saying the market will end 2017 higher than it is now.
More than three-quarters of those who voted for Trump say U.S. equities will be at higher levels at the end of 2017, while only about a third of those who voted for Clinton think so.
Men are more bullish about the market’s prospects than women, 62 percent to 47 percent, as are those without college degrees as compared to those with degrees, 57 percent to 47 percent.
Post-election run-ups in the U.S. stock market following presidential elections aren’t unusual. The S&P 500 Index has climbed almost 4.8 percent since Trump’s surprise Nov. 8 win.