Medical researchers estimated China could’ve reduced the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases by as much as 95% if officials had implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions -- from containment and isolation to social distancing -- just three weeks earlier than they did. Even implementing them one week earlier would have reduced China’s cases by 66%, while the number could’ve jumped 18 times if such measures came three weeks later, according to the study this month funded in part by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Social distancing measures can be a critical part of stopping the virus after governments have already implemented other containment measures, said Benjamin Cowling, a professor and co-director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control at Hong Kong University’s School of Public Health.
Governments need to conduct tests to identify and quarantine infected people and those with whom they’ve had contact, while also reducing imported cases from overseas, Cowling said. Once an outbreak has occurred and it becomes more difficult to track down suspected cases, social distancing measures like closing schools, working from home and voluntarily avoiding crowded areas is key, he said.
“Social distancing becomes more important if there’s sustained transmission in the community and we want to slow it down, because at that point, the first two measures won’t be as effective,” he said. “And hopefully the U.S. and Europe and other countries can learn from Hong Kong and Singapore in how social distancing can be applied and how our populations can be aware.”
Singapore -- which did not close schools or offices -- initially saw success containing the virus, but has more recently seen a second wave of cases that brought its total to 226. Recent cases seem to have mostly been imported from abroad, rather than through local transmission. Taiwan, which has carefully screened flights from China and has ordered strict fines for quarantine breakers as high as $33,228, has also seen success -- with just 59 cases and one death.
Hong Kong is now also worried about a second wave of cases. A local newspaper lambasted expats gathering in bars without masks -- showing that social pressure for social distancing continues in spite of government measures.
“There is a strong responsibility of people to adhere to social norms and respect the wider community,” said Thomas from City University. “There’s been an awareness in the last two decades that these problems are there and that we have to do something about it.”
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.