Surging rate-cut expectations and a desperate lunge for safe assets amid the coronavirus outbreak have earned the bond market a lot of fans in recent weeks. The resulting rally is creating a few detractors, too.
A growing chorus of strategists and money managers is voicing concern as investors charge into government debt at seemingly any price.
The fear is they’re exposing themselves to interest rate risk like never before, risking a precipitous slump on even a modest bump in yields. One breakthrough in the fight against the illness, or a sign the global economy is recovering faster-than-expected, might be all it takes.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries touched an all-time low on Monday but traders didn’t have to look far for clues of just how fast the narrative can change. The S&P 500 Index surged 4.6% on bets central banks would coordinate to limit the economic impact of the virus. The moves highlight belief in some corners that policy action will stoke growth, creating upward pressure for stocks and bond yields.
“If things go a little better -- if there is a cure in the next two, three months or if with warmer weather the virus fades -- then long-end rates will sell off,” said Alberto Gallo at Algebris Investments. “Duration is expensive to protect the portfolio.”
The London-based money manager said he’s using short positions in credit to hedge the risk of a deeper sell-off.
Amid a rally so ferocious that it has stirred speculation some Treasury yields could even be headed below zero, the danger of rising bond yields still seems remote. Even those flagging it as a concern aren’t ready to unwind their bets on longer bonds -- for now.
The Federal Reserve’s announcement Friday that it was ready to act if needed took 10- and 30-year Treasury yields to new lows, with futures markets now pricing in more than 100 basis points of Fed cuts this year. The announcement by the Fed, a rare departure from typical central bank protocol, ushered in similar assurances from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England.
The yield on the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index, which includes developed and emerging-market debt from governments and corporations, tumbled to 1.05% Monday, its lowest ever.
Still, the risks of taking one-way bets on bonds at such elevated valuations loom large. Sensitivity to changes in rates measured by duration is running at a record 8.6 years in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Treasuries Index. That means every percentage point increase in average yields would spark a price decline of about 8.6%.