While South Americans pulled away in recent years as the strengthening dollar added to the cost of buying in the U.S., domestic buyers are making up for it: Florida, which has no income tax, is drawing wealthy buyers from high-tax states like New York and New Jersey. Those buyers will push up Miami high-end prices by 5% in 2020, Knight Frank says.
Los Angeles’s Bright Spot Is in the $2 Million-$10 Million Range
Los Angeles’s market, from Beverly Hills to Bel Air, will show moderate price increases in 2020—amounting to about 2%. It might have been higher but for a pullback of foreign buyers, particularly Chinese who face restrictions on moving money abroad.
That’s tended to weaken the highest end of the market.
California’s wildfires, including one in 2018 that tore through Malibu, have also hurt by pushing up the cost of insurance, according to Sotheby’s White. Demand has been particularly weak for properties above $10 million. Homes priced below $10 million have a more bullish outlook, according to Knight Frank.
“L.A., at present, is more of a domestic market,” White says.
Central London Will Have Modest Success Across the Board
Central London, where prices fell 3% in the 12 months through November, will stabilize slightly next year as the fate of Brexit becomes clearer, says Tom Bill, Knight Frank’s head of London residential research. Prices are likely to rise by about 1% next year, according to Knight Frank research, now that Conservatives have won in a landslide.
“Once the Brexit deal is completed, we forecast rising momentum across all markets, with price growth reflecting this from 2021 onwards,” the company’s 2020 forecast report says.
The ratio of shoppers to available listings reached a decade high in September, a sign of rising demand. The decline in the British pound combined with years of decreases in property prices are attracting foreign buyers again, Bill says. “Next year we could see the disorderly Brexit risk recede,” he says. “If that is the case, there’s an awful lot of pent-up capital ready to buy in London, and that will translate into higher levels of activity.”
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.