Earlier this year Jay Charles’s twice-a-month paycheck jumped by $65, a result of the new U.S. law that cuts taxes almost $1.5 trillion over the next decade. Then he did the math.

It turns out Charles, a 48-year-old software developer in Blythewood, South Carolina, may not get a tax cut at all. He and his wife don’t have children and won’t be able to benefit from an enhanced child tax credit -- and they’ll be losing some benefits including unlimited state and local tax deductions. An online calculator showed Charles he’ll break even, and his wife, a professor who files separately, will probably see a tax increase.

For many Americans, the most noticeable effect of the tax law so far is a jump in their take-home pay. After the law passed, the Internal Revenue Service issued new withholding tables, directing employers to adjust how much tax money they take from workers’ paychecks starting in February. Those withholding amounts are effectively a guess at what employees’ tax liabilities will be for 2018.

Some taxpayers are finding the tables are a blunt tool. When 2018 taxes are due in April 2019, millions of Americans could find themselves owing the government far more than was withheld. Millions of others could find they paid too much in 2018, resulting in unusually large refunds. Which category you fall in could come down to whether you have any dependents and how old they are, if you itemize deductions, and whether you’re a two-income family.

In the meantime, the tax withholding amounts could have political consequences. Control of Congress is at stake in November’s elections, and the tax law is on track to become a top issue. Voters’ opinions may depend on whether they think they’re personally getting a fair share of benefits from the law signed by President Donald Trump in December.

Withholding is based on W-4 forms, typically filled out by workers when they start a job and rarely adjusted afterward. After the tax overhaul made parts of the old W-4 obsolete, the Treasury Department and the IRS issued a new form on Feb. 28, and unveiled an online calculator to help workers get their withholding right. Workers won’t be required to submit new W-4s, however, and many are unlikely to bother.

“This year it’s more critical than ever for all taxpayers to assess their personal situation, to make sure they have withholding at the right level,” said Stephen Dombroski, senior payroll tax compliance manager at payroll company Paychex Inc.

The taxpayers most likely to get a nasty surprise when filing taxes next year are those who have typically itemized on their returns and claimed large deductions. That’s especially true if those deductions were for state and local taxes, which are limited to $10,000 by the law, or for unreimbursed employee expenses, which are eliminated entirely. The IRS also urges couples with two incomes, workers with multiple jobs, and taxpayers with lots of dependents to re-check their W-4s.

The bottom line: The more complicated your situation, the more likely your withholding is out of whack, in positive or negative ways.

California Couple

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