With that clarity, is it any surprise that he’s running an RIA with tens of billions of dollars in AUM and is frequently quoted in the media?

Now, Peter could be wrong. Maybe we end up with a W shape, or a V followed by a L, or some new letter that hasn’t been invented yet. The point is not whether Peter will be right or wrong. The point is he has a point of view, that view shapes how he manages his clients’ expectations and their portfolios, and I’m confident that as new information arrives, he’ll adjust his point of view if needed.

Questions You Ask Yourself:

4. What is the proper role of fiscal and monetary policy in our economy?
What I find interesting about this question is that crises reveal an important truth. And the truth is, many people are capitalists when things are going great, and socialists when mayhem breaks out. Look no further than the hedge fund managers or corporate titans who happily rake in millions in good times, then are first in line to get the “first come, first served” Paycheck Protection Program money when things crash.

Clearly, government intervention in the economy and financial markets has been going on forever and few people would argue about the need for some intervention during crucial times. The question is, what degree of intervention do you think is appropriate?

Recently, the Fed started buying junk bond ETFs to increase liquidity in that market and prevent a meltdown. Some industry pros were appalled by that move as it signaled deeper encroachment by government in what has historically been a role of capitalism. Buying equity ETFs could be next if there’s another big downdraft in the equity markets. Are you ok with that? How you answer that question helps inform your point of view.

Japan is already way ahead of the US in this regard. The Bank of Japan started buying equity ETFs about a decade ago to prop up its equity market and now owns more than $270 billion worth of the corporate pie. Interestingly, Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index is still 50% below its all-time high set more than 30 years ago! Do you think the US is on a similar path? Again, this informs your point of view.

5. What are the longer-term medical, economic, social, and political ramifications of the pandemic and the fiscal and monetary policy that resulted from it?
This is a biggie. I’ve been alluding to this question in recent GTKs because I think it’s critically important that you stay alert to what’s happening. Keep your eyes and ears open to the events and happenings that bubble up across the country and around the world. Take time to connect the dots and develop a framework for putting them in context. Read periodicals that you haven’t read before. Subscribe to email letters like GZERO Media’s Signal and The Conversation’s Daily. If you watch Fox News, switch to CNN sometimes, and vice versa. Digest a variety of inputs so you don’t end up with confirmation bias.

Here’s an example of how Ian Bremmer is connecting some dots and coming up with a hypothesis that corporations may become more profitable in the future at the expense of fewer employees—and that may lead to lower consumer spending.

“With businesses under stress across the economy, they need to improve efficiency. And they will—most every CEO I know has been telling me how they’ll be able to make more money with fewer people over the coming decade. They’re now being pushed to figure out those cost savings immediately, all at once.

“As one Fortune 100 CEO said last week: ‘I guarantee that our company, like many others, will operate with fewer people, smaller buildings, and far more efficient ways of doing business.’ So, the fourth industrial revolution is about to become the post-industrial revolution for large numbers of former workers; medium term, that feels to me like a minimum of 10% of the economy. Consumption across the board will be hit accordingly.”

You can do what Bremmer does: Gather input, connect the dots, then develop your point of view.