Ultimately, the three questions above speak to an overarching one: “Are you more likely to get infected traveling than you would at home?” The answer will be specific to where you’re going—as well as where you’re coming from—says Weisenberg. In other words: The public-health picture in a destination matters only as it relates to the one in your local area.
The answer will be specific to where you’re going—as well as where you’re coming from.
And if you’re not sure about the reliability of local data, there are other ways to infer the risks that exist on the ground. Talaat advises that “if a lot of people are vaccinated, or people are being vaccinated quickly, then the transmission rate will be slower.” The same is true, she says, if a destination is “strictly enforcing other measures [such as frequent testing, wearing masks, and social distancing] as a means of keeping numbers down.”
Everyone agreed: Domestic travel is not inherently safer than international travel. Talaat says she recently visited family in South Carolina, a state that’s done away with mask mandates. “Everywhere we went there were unmasked people, and almost none of the restaurants there had outdoor seating,” she says. “The reality of that situation just didn’t hit home until we were there.”
Can I vacation in a Covid bubble?
In my own planning, I focused on contained—and in many cases all-inclusive—resorts, finding comfort in the idea that I’d never need to leave. By staying on-site among PCR-negative guests, I figured, I’d eliminate the need for in-the-moment risk assessments in a destination that I don’t know well.
The medical experts I spoke with say this is a valid strategy, but there are other viable ones, too. Exploring a destination, they say, is considered safe so long as you continue to abide by common-sense measures like social distancing, wearing a mask, and limiting indoor activities. “The more people you come in contact with, the more likely you are to encounter the virus,” Talaat says. “But if you’re outside, your risk is much lower across the board.”
Even remote, primarily outdoor trips can carry risks. Among them, says Weisenberg, is not knowing where fellow travelers may be coming from. On a safari, for instance, he says “the primary risk is going to be the other people in your Land Rover, or at dinner, or around the fire. They may come from other parts of the world, so that introduces unknowns,” particularly in terms of virus variants, some of which have shown to “break through” Pfizer Inc.’s shot. The risks of those constant individual exposures may be comparable, in the end, to spending a day on Manhattan’s bustling Upper East Side, where 50% of locals have already received at least one shot and Covid risk tolerance is low.
Everyone agreed: Domestic travel is not inherently safer than international travel.
Two questions may be especially important when evaluating a hotel—and both likely require an email or a phone call to the front desk. “Asking whether staff are vaccinated will limit where you go, because few countries have the ability to vaccinate so quickly. But if that’s OK with you, it decreases your risk tremendously,” Talaat says. “It means you’re really in a bubble.”
The next best thing, says Caplivski, is ensuring that staff don’t feel compelled to work if they’re feeling sick. The right question to ask is whether the employees have access to paid sick leave. “That’s a very smart approach,” he says, validating one of my stealthy strategies.
Is flying safe?
Picking a “safe” airline used to be easy: As long as Delta was blocking middle seats (which go back on sale starting May 1), it was the obvious choice. Now the standouts include Etihad, whose crew is fully vaccinated, and Emirates and Singapore, which follow closely behind. Qantas has made strides by requiring international passengers to show proof of vaccination. But these airlines primarily serve long-haul routes, many to countries whose borders remain closed. U.S. carriers, meanwhile, offer comparable pros and cons, with none of them showing any immediate intention to require vaccine cards for boarding.
That leaves most American travelers relying on the small preventive measures within their control, with the hope that those safety benefits can add up when taken together.
Upgrading to business class minimizes risk only “incrementally,” Weisenberg says, adding that “there’s some theoretical value to having fewer people in your immediate vicinity.” Caplivski also ascribed little value to an upgrade: “It might not be enough to warrant the price.”