The rapid spread of the coronavirus is prompting strategists to tweak their calls across major asset classes as investors continue to assess its impact on the global economy.
From taking profit in bonds to being wary of too much equity risk, firms including Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are among those that have moved to adjust their views even as risk appetite remains resilient despite the increasing death toll and number of infected people.
While China-watchers have been quick to assess the near-term hit to growth and the increased funding challenges for swathes of its corporate sector, mapping out the implications for assets in other countries has arguably been tougher.
Here are how some investors have shifted their forecasts this week:
Crest in Bonds
The risk-on vibe that’s playing out in markets this week prompted Citigroup strategists to take profits on a long U.S. Treasuries trading recommendation they made last month.
“Given price action dynamics in both rates and equities over the past two trading sessions, we are booking some profits, and wait to see if the number of cases internationally grows significantly,” the team including Jeremy Hale wrote Tuesday.
Similarly, Aberdeen Standard Investments ended long-duration plays on Australian and Canadian bonds as well as Treasuries, saying the rally had gone too far. Unless the coronavirus behaves differently to previous pandemics, it will be short-lived, Garreth Innes, who helps oversee the equivalent of $3 billion as head of Australian fixed income, said Wednesday.
“We still have a long-duration bias, but not at these levels. We want to see more of a sell-off -- and bonds have moved a lot further than currencies or risk assets.”
As the virus panic plays havoc with models, German money manager DWS Group reversed a call for higher yields on bunds. It says the Treasury rally has gone too far and now forecasts an uptick in U.S. Treasury yields after benchmarks touched the lowest levels since August.