New Hampshire
Date of Primary: Feb. 11
2016 Vote: Clinton 46.8%, Trump 46.5%
New Hampshire has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the U.S., something Trump highlighted — and took credit for — in an August campaign rally. It ranks among the richest, with the fourth highest median household income in the nation, and has become even more so under Trump. Part of the state’s success is its economic diversity. Robust tourism, health care and education industries make it less vulnerable if one sector gets hit. Still, manufacturing jobs have steadily decreased in recent months and the state’s aging population has made finding people to fill jobs one of the state’s biggest issues.
Economist Take: “We have a Goldilocks economy: not too hot, not too cold, but people sense there’s a wolf at the door,” said Russ Thibeault, president of Applied Economic Research in New Hampshire. “If you’re Donald Trump, you campaign on that frozen-in-time image of ‘things are pretty good right now.’ If you’re a Democrat, you talk about things that deteriorate. You campaign on distribution of wealth and income.”
Nevada
Date of Caucus: Feb. 22
2016 Vote: Clinton 47.9%, Trump 45.5%
Nevada relies on the tourism and gaming industry for hundreds of thousands of jobs. While some parts of the state are still recovering from the last recession — with home-ownership rates further trailing the national average after a wave of foreclosures — it’s growing. But the economic gains have concentrated with the wealthy. Between 2009-2015, Nevada’s top 1% saw their average real income grow more than 16 times that of the bottom 99%, according to research by the Guinn Center and Brookings Mountain West.
Economist Take: ““When the economy crashed we stopped building, but people kept moving here, and the result of that is we’ve got real housing shortages and high rents,” said Elliott Parker, professor and chair of economics at University of Nevada, Reno.
South Carolina
Date of Primary: Feb. 29
2016 Vote: Trump 54.9%, Clinton 40.7%