In other words, this is a deflationary scenario and with none of the obvious conditions that create even modest inflation.
I am not suggesting that some inflation is impossible. No, I'm only saying that 5% or 10% inflation requires a series of very different, and probably unlikely, events to occur: We quickly get a treatment and a vaccine that is available to everyone immediately; all the workers who were laid off are quickly rehired and start producing at the same level as before with no deterioration in their skills; a tax cut for the middle class encourages more discretionary spending; Congress doesn't know when to ratchet back the fiscal spigot and the Fed stops paying attention to its 2% inflation target. And while we're at it, it's worth noting that inflation expectations have been heading lower, and there's concern that the U.S., like some other developed nations, will soon have negative interest rates.
There are lots of things we should be worried about at the moment. But inflation probably isn't one of them.
Barry Ritholtz is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He founded Ritholtz Wealth Management and was chief executive and director of equity research at FusionIQ, a quantitative research firm. He is the author of “Bailout Nation.”