Neither of the consultant reports estimated how many people overall could lose insurance coverage.
The flexibility granted to the states could allow them to set up markets where individuals who have so-called pre-existing conditions are charged more for insurance than others, according to the Manatt analysis. States could also potentially remove other pieces of the ACA’s insurance regulations, including requirements that health plans cover essential health benefits, such as prescription drugs, hospitalization, and maternity care.
“In states that obtain waivers, individuals with pre-existing conditions could face substantially higher premiums in the individual and small group markets, or find their policies do not cover essential services,” according to the Manatt analysis.
Because the bill depends on states to implement it, the exact effects on coverage are difficult to estimate. Manatt said that over the 2020-2026 period, when the bill is designed to go into effect, 29 states would receive less federal funding than under Obamacare, with an average cut of 19 percent. The funding ends after 2026, creating a severe dropoff in health-care payments, though supporters of the law have said it would be reauthorized.
The analysis from Avalere finds that when the broader Medicaid cuts are taken into account, 34 states and the District of Columbia would see reductions in federal funding over the 2020 to 2026 period, while 16 would gain. The Avalere analysis was funded by the left-leaning Center for American Progress.
Conservative Criticism
Republican lawmakers have been pledging to repeal and replace Obamacare since it was signed into law in 2010, but some right-leaning groups have been lukewarm on the Graham-Cassidy approach because it leaves much of the law’s taxes in place.
FreedomWorks, an advocate for conservative causes, said it’s not yet taking a position.
“We don’t support nor do we oppose Graham-Cassidy,” the group said in a statement on Wednesday. “Although this amendment fails to meet more than seven years of promises to repeal ObamaCare and does not truly represent an approach grounded in the principles of federalism, there is a path to win our support.”
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.