The bond market is starting to bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as soon as 2020 as concern grows that the economic outlook will darken.
Traders have been slashing the expected pace of rate hikes since the central bank’s top brass flagged global headwinds to growth and opened the door to a change in the policy path. The swaps market has moved up the timing for when it sees the hiking cycle peaking, toward the end of 2019 or early 2020, a period when the Fed’s own projections indicate tightening will still be under way. Swaps indicate about 5 basis points of a cut priced in by mid-2020.
The shift in the market’s view picked up speed this week—inverting parts of the yield curve for the first time since 2007—even after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that his weekend meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping had produced a truce on tariffs. Trade friction was seen as a drag on an economy that was already showing cracks, such as a slowing housing market. The gap between 2- and 10-year Treasuries sank on Tuesday to below 10 basis points, the flattest since 2007.
“What is the most striking aspect of this move is the extent of it in just two days and how the acceleration came out of nowhere right after a supposed amicable meeting between the U.S. and China,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Financial Group, said in a note. “It’s almost as if the bond market screamed out, ‘It’s too late, the growth slowdown underway can’t be reversed.”’
The curve is flattening because even though cuts have moved on to traders’ radar screen the year after next, the Fed is still expected to lift rates this month and tighten further next year. Inversion has preceded every U.S. recession for the past 60 years.
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.