Some wealthy investors across the globe, including those in the United States, are poised to make portfolio changes depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November, according to UBS’s Election Watch and Investor Survey released Monday.
However, even as the election adds uncertainty to an already troubled world economy, 46% of participants globally said they were optimistic about the world economy over the next 12 months, up from 40% three months prior, while 36% were pessimistic, down from 45%.
The survey polled more than 4,000 investors with at least $1 million in investable assets, as well as business owners with at least $1 million in revenue and one employee besides themselves, across 14 markets globally in late June and early July.
Forty-six percent of respondents ranked the U.S. election among their biggest worries, up from 39% three months earlier.
A closely fought U.S. election could result in a higher degree of market volatility, but not the kind of volatility seen last spring, the report said.
“The US election will likely present numerous opportunities for investors, as well as some clarity over policy direction in the world’s largest economy,” said Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a press release. “Regardless of the result, the eventual impact on financial markets is likely to be close to neutral, even if they experience some interim volatility.“
Fifty-five percent of respondents said Joe Biden was most likely to win the election, compared with 45% who said Donald Trump will win. Forty-nine percent of Latin American investors foresaw a Trump victory, the highest proportion globally, while 42% of Swiss investors predicted a Trump win, the lowest share in any region.
American respondents’ optimism over the economic outlook in the United States increased more than in any other part of the world, with 41% expressing optimism compared with 30% three months prior. They were also less likely to say they would adjust their portfolios based on who wins the election, with 46% planning to do so, compared to a global average of 61%, the report said.
Tactical adjustments are likely to become a more important consideration in September as the campaign enters its latter stages, UBS said.
At this point, according to UBS, a sweep of the November election by Democrats “would likely benefit assets exposed to energy efficiency, smart mobility and renewables both in the U.S. and abroad. A large Republican win could benefit select energy and financial companies as the threat of tighter regulation recedes, while space and defense companies could also do well in a Trump second term.”
“A close election contest would result in a higher degree of volatility. The expansion of absentee voting in many states is another important variable because it could delay the announcement of election results,” UBS said.