March 2018 • Evan Simonoff
Ever since President Trump was elected, the financial markets have deliberated whether the era christened as the New Normal by former Pimco executives Bill Gross and Mohamed El-Arian is over. In February, all it took was a whiff of inflation in the unemployment report for markets to reach the conclusion a new era had arrived. The problem is that no one knows what interest rate regime will replace it. Any relief from so-called financial repression would be welcome news for many of the 48 million or so Americans over 65. Unfortunately, the cost of retirement is unlikely to suddenly decline dramatically, even if interest rates continue to rise and bonds offer more than meager coupon payments. Clients may be able to receive a more reasonable return on fixed-income investments, but that’s only one part of the retirement equation. Bond bears have a case. The U.S. government looks like it may be running trillion-dollar deficits for several years with unemployment at 4% or below. The last time the U.S. had trillion-dollar deficits, circumstances were very different. Unemployment was topping 10% while there was a $700 billion bank bailout and an $880 million stimulus-tax cut package. Today with the good times rolling, conventional wisdom might dictate it is time to save for a rainy day. Cutting the high U.S. corporate tax rate was overdue, but there were ways to enact a reduction on companies without increasing federal deficits to this degree. The bond market is going to face other headwinds. Trillions in 10-year Treasury bonds sold during and after the financial crisis will need to be refinanced at the same time as the Fed will be reducing its balance sheet and selling bonds. Treasury officials will get a chance to see just how strong demand for their securities is. By 2020, the big bulge of baby boomers will turn 65 and go on Medicare—many are already taking Social Security. Economists at JP Morgan are expecting four increases in the fed funds rate this year and another four in 2019. That assumes the new normal is dead as a doornail and that we will enter a totally different era. First « 1 2 » Next
Ever since President Trump was elected, the financial markets have deliberated whether the era christened as the New Normal by former Pimco executives Bill Gross and Mohamed El-Arian is over. In February, all it took was a whiff of inflation in the unemployment report for markets to reach the conclusion a new era had arrived.
The problem is that no one knows what interest rate regime will replace it. Any relief from so-called financial repression would be welcome news for many of the 48 million or so Americans over 65.
Unfortunately, the cost of retirement is unlikely to suddenly decline dramatically, even if interest rates continue to rise and bonds offer more than meager coupon payments. Clients may be able to receive a more reasonable return on fixed-income investments, but that’s only one part of the retirement equation.
Bond bears have a case. The U.S. government looks like it may be running trillion-dollar deficits for several years with unemployment at 4% or below.
The last time the U.S. had trillion-dollar deficits, circumstances were very different. Unemployment was topping 10% while there was a $700 billion bank bailout and an $880 million stimulus-tax cut package.
Today with the good times rolling, conventional wisdom might dictate it is time to save for a rainy day. Cutting the high U.S. corporate tax rate was overdue, but there were ways to enact a reduction on companies without increasing federal deficits to this degree.
The bond market is going to face other headwinds. Trillions in 10-year Treasury bonds sold during and after the financial crisis will need to be refinanced at the same time as the Fed will be reducing its balance sheet and selling bonds.
Treasury officials will get a chance to see just how strong demand for their securities is. By 2020, the big bulge of baby boomers will turn 65 and go on Medicare—many are already taking Social Security.
Economists at JP Morgan are expecting four increases in the fed funds rate this year and another four in 2019. That assumes the new normal is dead as a doornail and that we will enter a totally different era.
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