For Clinton, the poor numbers make it more essential that her primary opponent, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, withdraw and endorse her.
“Nancy Pelosi has already endorsed her and I presume that Obama will endorse her in a day or two,” Valliere said. “Clinton really needs Sanders to enthusiastically endorse her, otherwise a lot of his passionate young supporters will stay home in November. A lot of his younger supporters believe the deck was stacked against him and he sought to reinforce that view. If his endorsement is tepid, these young people will stay home. But I don’t buy the view that they will support Donald Trump.”
Valliere said that unless Trump can make inroads against Clinton in rust belt states like Ohio, Michigan or Pennsylvania, he won’t be able to overcome her advantage among women and Hispanic voters.
While the economy is likely to influence the campaigns through the summer months, the candidates will pivot back towards appeals based on personality closer to election day, says Valliere.
“As we get into October, the big issue will be ‘who do you trust to have their finger on the nuclear button,” Valliere said. “Even with all this angst over the economy and a desire to get somebody outside of Washington into the White House, I think that argument favors Hillary.”
If Trump is viewed as unelectable, wealthy Republican campaign donors may remain sidelined in the presidential race, focusing on congressional campaigns instead, said Valliere.
“That’s going to be a big factor,” he said. “A lot of major Republican money is going to Senate races and that’s important because right now you have a Senate that possibly could go back to the Democrats, while the House is likely to stay with the GOP.
“A divided government is not a bad scenario for financial markets," he added. "The markets could live with a Hillary presidency and a divided congress. There’s clearly some anxiety over the Trump presidency because of all the uncertainties with the Fed and with trade. On the other hand, if Clinton won in a landslide that brought the House back to the Democrats, you’d have Clinton, Nancy Pelosi as speaker and Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) as Senate majority leader. That’s not a scenario that the market would like, either.”