Oil prices are likely to average $110 in the second quarter as tensions over Ukraine continue to escalate, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said.

The crude market is likely to see sustained higher prices in the next quarter, before retreating to average $90 at the end of the year, the bank’s analysts including Natasha Kaneva wrote in a note.

That forecast assumes an escalation in tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine, alongside a nuclear deal with Iran that would still return some supply to the market.

Brent this week came within a whisker of $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. While tensions in Eastern Europe have fired prices higher, traders also see global oil stockpiles being whittled away as demand outpaces supply.

Brent oil will average $110 a barrel next quarter and West Texas Intermediate $107, according to the JPMorgan analysts. That represents an increase of $22 compared with the bank’s prior estimates for both grades.

This article was provided by Bloomberg News.