There’s a long way to go from Iowa to a wealth tax, according to JPMorgan.
“We put the probability of major changes like Medicare-for-all or a wealth tax at less than 5%,” analyst Jesse Edgerton wrote on Friday, noting that after the Iowa caucus, Bernie Sanders leads the Democratic field in election models and prediction markets.
Edgerton sees a very low probability that “dramatic” policy proposals from Sanders or Elizabeth Warren will be enacted, as the Democratic nomination process is far from over and the likelihood of a victory by Donald Trump “looks close to a coin flip,” with prediction markets putting the president’s re-election chances a bit above 50%. “Even if Senator Sanders were to become president, there would still be many checks and balances on his ability to act,” Edgerton added.
Sanders, Pete Buttigieg and other candidates will meet to debate face-to-face on Friday night in Manchester, New Hampshire.
(Michael Bloomberg is seeking the Democratic nomination. He is the founder and majority shareholder of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News.)
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.