High-yield bonds from the Ukraines of this world have never been cheaper relative to their investment-grade brethren like China.
Across emerging markets, the yield from junk-rated debt in U.S. dollars has spiked to more than 3.6 times that of investment-grade issuers, according to a Bloomberg analysis. That’s the highest ratio since the data was first compiled in 1998, adjusting for duration.
“They’re relatively cheap,” said Damian Sassower, chief emerging markets credit strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence in New York. “But you still have the standard risk – that for example a Turkey, or a Ukraine turns into another Argentina.”
Argentina’s selective default and contagion to peers, together with a tumble in emerging-market currencies in August, are the latest culprits that have widened the ratio over the past year. The South American nation returned to capital controls on Sunday.
Its previous peak was in early 2015, when China’s stock market tanked and spurred a mini-market panic that went beyond securities of developing nations.
The development is significant for yield hunters who manage emerging-market or unconstrained funds and have been picking over sovereigns. They’re the people trying to find the next Ukraine -- whose 23% return this year tops a Bloomberg Barclays benchmark of speculative-grade debt -- while avoiding the next Argentina or Venezuela, down 36%.
The $741 billion index has an overall return in 2019 of 6.6%.
This article provided by Bloomberg News.