Moving on to the 2020 presidential election, Valliere says there’s a long way to go before Trump’s re-election is in doubt. For one thing, the Democrats lack a credible challenger.

If Republicans fail to move forward on at least some of the non-health care elements of their domestic agenda, the populist wave that carried Trump to the presidency may turn against them, says Valliere.

“The public will continue to be disillusioned about the ability to get anything done in Congress,” he says. “Even to Republicans, this Congress has been a disappointment, and this populist, anti-incumbent mood may perisist and become something that Republicans really have to worry about.”
 

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