There are early signs the efforts are gaining traction. Sales prices for Florida luxury homes rose 5 percent on average in the third quarter from a year earlier and have outperformed the U.S. luxury average for four straight quarters, according to data compiled by Redfin. The number of home sales for the priciest market segment rose 6 percent in those three months from the year-ago period, even as they shrank 0.7 percent nationally.

The outperformance came against the backdrop of rising mortgage rates and already-daunting prices in much of America.

Still, it’s far from the Great Tax Migration some had predicted. While it’s too early to have official data one way or the other, there’s no consensus that a wave of American millionaires is actually willing to move over taxes.

Conservative economists Arthur Laffer and Stephen Moore -- of Laffer Associates and the Heritage Foundation, respectively -- predicted in the Wall Street Journal this April that New York and California alone would lose 800,000 residents to tax-related migration over three years.

Cristobal Young, a Cornell University sociologist and author of “The Myth of Millionaire Tax Flight: How Place Still Matters to the Rich," wrote in an email that modest tax changes have “very small effects" on millionaire migration. His book shows that billionaires are more likely to die than change their primary place of residence.

But Young also found that Florida is the most successful of the zero income tax states at attracting millionaire migration -- by far. If you strip Florida out of the national data, evidence of rich people moving from high- to low-tax states essentially disappears, he found.

That could mean Florida simply has more attractive weather and golf. Alternatively, he wrote, it may mean that Americans only need one tax haven, and Florida, having seemingly won the competition, now benefits from a critical mass of wealthy people who are innately drawn to one another.

“You have a number of New York transplants already here," Elliman’s Parker said. "New Yorkers move in packs just like many other cultures do. So they want to know that their friends are here, that their restaurants are here, that their schools are here."

Either way, the crowds in Long Island suggest the Sunshine State has something going for it.

“You now have a landing pad that is perfectly cushioned for the discerning needs of the wealthy New York or New Jersey or Connecticut transplant, combined with tremendous financial incentives," he said.