California had projected revenue of $630 million from its cannabis excise tax in the 2018 to 2019 fiscal year, but that forecast was later lowered, according to state budget documents. The spending plan for the 2019 to 2020 fiscal year estimated $359 million in cannabis excise tax revenue.

And New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy has rolled back expectations for how much his state will collect from marijuana sales. Murphy’s most recent estimate was $60 million for the first six months of legal pot sales. That’s much less than the $300 million a year he had estimated when he was running for election in 2017. The state’s voters will decide if they want to legalize sales in November.

Illinois is deliberately taking a phased-in, slow approach that “doesn’t allow the industry to grow very quickly,” said Toi Hutchinson, Pritzker’s senior adviser for cannabis control. Hutchinson added that she’s trying to temper expectations about revenue.

In other states that legalized sales, the tax revenue generated amounted to less than 2% of state taxes, with Colorado at the highest with 1.8% and California the lowest at 0.1% in fiscal 2018, according to Lucy Dadayan, a senior research associate at the Urban Institute Tax Policy Center.

In Illinois, where taxes on tobacco, alcohol and gambling make up about 5.5% of revenue, marijuana is expected to provide less than 1% for fiscal 2020, Dadayan said.

Even though revenue from legalized marijuana can’t cover the cost of big-ticket items such as education or infrastructure, state officials are drawn to so-called sin taxes, she said.

“Each single million counts in the budget,” Dadayan said.

Chicago is projecting $4 million in tax revenue from legalized marijuana in 2020. During her recent campaign, Mayor Lori Lightfoot cited legalization as part of her plan to address the city’s financial problems.

Illinois plans to impose a 7% cultivator excise tax on legal pot, according to the Civic Federation’s report. Other states such as Massachusetts, Michigan and Oregon don’t do that. Illinois will also levy a 6.25% general sales tax, as well as a retail excise tax that will range from 10% to 25%, based on the level of THC, tetrahydrocannabinol, the chemical in marijuana that produces a high. Local governments are also allowed to add additional taxes.

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