Even Liu’s biggest success at overseas financing has soured: after securing funds to develop Spinifex Ridge, the project is “on hold pending more favorable economic conditions,” according to Moly’s website. The $494 million CDB loan facility for the project expired in May, and Hanlong “has advised it will not be in a position to financially support an acquisition” until the second half of 2013, Moly said in its annual report released today.

China’s opaque legal system and lack of government transparency mean investors who bet on Liu’s success may never know whether he was caught up in power play, or just caught on the wrong side of China’s shifting policy on resource acquisitions.

“The Chinese economy, including the private sector, is policy driven,” said Wan of Renmin University’s. “Foreign investors have to be sure about the direction that the Chinese government wants to go.”

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