The majority of insurers believe a recession is coming before the end of 2021, according to “Cautiously Optimistic,” the eighth annual global insurance survey from Goldman Sachs.

While only 2 percent of a survey of 307 chief investment officers and chief financial officers at global insurance companies believed a recession would begin before the end of this year, 41 percent said that the next recession will start next year, with another 41 percent thinking that the onset of another recession would take place in 2021. Just 16 percent believed there would be no recession in the next three years.

Since last year’s survey, significantly more insurers believe that the U.S. economy is in the late stages of the credit cycle; while 34 percent of respondents in 2018 thought we were late in the cycle, 85 percent of the respondents felt that way this year.

When it comes to investing, insurers are also a pessimistic lot: 40 percent of the respondents believed investment opportunities are getting worse, and another 46 percent believed they are stagnant, meaning just 14 percent believed opportunities are improving.

The three most serious investment risks, as reported by insurers, are credit quality deterioration, named by 38 percent of the respondents; low yields, named by 24 percent of respondents; and equity market volatility, named by 13 percent of respondents.

On the bright side, insurer concerns about rising interest rates and inflation have decreased significantly from 2018 levels. This sentiment is also reflected in the respondents’ views on Treasury yields, with 62 percent stating that they feel the 10-year Treasury yield will be range-bound between 2.5 and 3 percent through the end of 2019.

While more than three-fifths of respondents reported using some form of environmental, social and governmental (ESG) methodology in their investment considerations, this number is highly biased by respondents from Asia and Europe, over 80 percent of whom practice some form of ESG investing. Among American respondents, just 43 percent reported using ESG methodology.