In a way, the exercise taps into irrational behaviors to drive a favorable outcome, said Dyson. “It’s the nature of entrepreneurs and innovators,” he said. “They are highly optimistic creatures.”
Musk’s $100 million is likely to lead to many times that amount being invested into developing carbon capture technology. That’s something the space desperately needs. Climate models show that some form of negative-emissions technology will be required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, and there’s a limit to how many forests can be planted to naturally absorb CO₂.
“Air is practically an infinite reservoir of CO₂,” said Stuart Haszeldine, professor of carbon capture and storage at the University of Edinburgh. If there’s a carbon capture technology that deserves such a prize, Haszeldine reckons that direct air capture is the right target.
Musk isn’t the first billionaire to propose a multimillion-dollar carbon capture prize. Richard Branson launched the Virgin Earth Challenge in 2007, offering $25 million for commercially viable machines that can remove significant amounts of CO₂ from the air for at least 10 years. In 2011, finalists were announced but none met the criteria. The Carbon XPrize, started in 2015, currently has 10 finalists vying to convert CO₂ into products. The winner is expected to be announced in 2021.
These past technology prizes can help Musk design his own. His team has to put in considerable effort to map out the technology landscape and future pathways for its use before it launches the competition, said Nesta Challenges’ Dyson. That will help create clear criteria that’s ambitious but not impossible. The rules have to stay consistent, and small financial rewards for reaching smaller milestones can help teams stay motivated.
Dyson, who has been working on the criteria for a direct air capture award, says he would love to work with Musk on his prize— mostly because of his star power.
“People will want to have a go at the prize just to be associated with Elon Musk,” said Dyson. Carbon capture, until now confined mostly to the realm of climate science wonks, could do with that kind of mainstream publicity.
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.