While New Jersey has a housing surplus, it "has not had the default crisis seen elsewhere," Naroff said. With residents struggling to sell their homes, they have less flexibility to head to states such as Florida, where the cost of living is lower, he said.
"If you can't sell your house, you can't move," he said. "Expect slowly improving economic and revenue growth, but not any surge coming from income, sales or corporate taxes. This is a slow population-growth state. We're slowing the out- migration."