This year will be one of modest economic growth, but still enough to avoid recession.
It will be a year in which central bankers will be able to drop rates without fears of overheating the economy, according to a 2020 outlook report from Northern Trust.
“The combination of moderate growth and technological innovation will continue to suppress inflation, bolstering the global central bank easing cycle underway,” said the report.
That means that this will be a good year for U.S. equities and high-yield bonds, the report continued.
That was the overall message from Northern Trust officials on Tuesday in Manhattan at an investment strategy press briefing on the report entitled “Everything in Moderation."
“We are not expecting a recession,” said Robert Browne, executive vice president and chief investment officer for Northern Trust. He emphasized that advisors and investors should continue to “be fully invested” in 2020.
Browne added that the United States economy will likely grow by 2% and the stock market will rise by about 7%.
Money, Northern Trust officials say, will continue to be plentiful thanks to an accommodating central bank.
The report predicted two Federal Reserve Bank interest rate cuts and that the 10-year Treasury yield will drop from 2% to 1.5%.
Browne said that the Fed is not “unnecessarily concerned” about inflation. If anything, he said, it was humbled a few years ago about a non-existent inflation problem. The Fed is much more likely to drop rates than raise them.