The U.S. economy, the world’s largest, will continue to color the debate. While it grew at a 3.1 percent rate in the third quarter, this year will bring growth of just 2 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Forecasters expect the unemployment rate to remain at or above 7 percent through 2014.

Still, U.S. stocks closed at a five-year high last week and Treasuries rose for the fifth time in six days on prospects of a short-term lift of the debt ceiling. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.3 percent to 1,485.83 at 4 p.m. in New York on Jan. 18 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 54 points to 13,649.54. Yields on 10-year Treasuries slid four basis points to 1.84 percent.

Many of Obama’s predecessors were brought low in their second terms by scandal, policy blunders, hubris, even crime. In recent weeks, Obama has been reading up on second terms, reviewing past inaugural addresses, and dining with presidential historians at the White House. He solicited advice while golfing with Clinton, a fellow Democrat who served two terms.

Obama’s been cautioned against the pitfalls of insularity for second-term presidents who, emboldened by re-election, risk losing touch with voters and political realities. Obama has always depended on a core group of advisers, several of whom have left the West Wing. Yet as he’s building his new team, Obama hasn’t so far put a premium on expanding his inner circle.

Core Advisers

Senior advisers including Valerie Jarrett, Pete Rouse and Denis McDonough, a deputy national security adviser who Obama probably will elevate to chief of staff, have been with him since his days in the U.S. Senate. While there’s strength in loyalty, historians and White House veterans say a president needs to welcome divergent opinions.

“He needs to bring to in a diverse group of people, new blood, new thinking that will push this administration into higher gear,” said Podesta, who oversaw Obama’s transition into office four years ago. “He’ll be more or less successful based on whether he can make that transition.”

An energized, fresh core also can counteract the pattern of presidents losing the top talent who served in the first term, said H.W. Brands, a presidential historian at the University of Texas at Austin.

“When you get elected the first time, you get your first draft pick,” said Brands, who is part of the group of historians that periodically meets with Obama, most recently over dinner on Jan. 10. “When you get to the second term, you’re working on second string.”

Candid Advice