Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Gene Frieda said his firm has a “scrooge outlook” for next year in which even improved global growth probably won’t spark significant market rallies.
“The near-term path for global growth is actually up, but most risky asset markets and even rates markets, to a certain extent, have front-run that,” the London-based global strategist said on Bloomberg TV. “We just don’t see a lot of reason to believe that turn in the cycle is going to be particularity strong.”
Moreover, broad optimism assumes there are no large negative shocks, according to Frieda.
Trade will remain a central theme for investors in the new year, and Frieda expects a signed phase-one agreement in January to be a positive driver for markets. In Hong Kong, he’s betting political turmoil and protests will de-escalate in the months ahead.
Still, given returns in risky assets this year, “it feels like you’re squeezing blood from a stone in terms of risky asset returns. It’s been a great year already,” Frieda said.
--With assistance from Tom Keene.
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.