Republican Advantage

The poll demonstrates the tough odds for Democrats heading into the midterms. Republicans are poised to retake the U.S. House next week with a 47% to 44% edge among likely voters. Independents are driving the Republican advantage.

The heart of Obama's voting base and the group he's tailored most of his policies to, middle-income earners -- or those who make $25,000 to $49,999 -- feel more pinched by taxes, are gloomier about economic growth and more pessimistic the tax dollars lent to Wall Street banks will ever be repaid than their higher-income-earning counterparts.

In an October report to Congress, released as TARP turned two years old, the Treasury said it had recovered most of the $245 billion spent on the Wall Street bank part of the rescue, and expects to turn a $16 billion profit. In the Bloomberg poll, 60% of respondents say they believe most of the TARP money to the banks is lost and only 33% say most of the funds will be recovered.

"Anything that ever needs to be paid back it's 'let's go after the middle class,'" says poll respondent Judith Ann Micone, a 55-year-old cosmetologist and Republican from Kalispell, Montana.

Women More Skeptical

Women are slightly more skeptical than men that the funds will be recovered. Independents and Republicans are overwhelmingly skeptical. Even Democrats are mostly doubtful, with 48% saying the money will be lost, compared with 41% who say it will be recovered.

Separate from the aid for the Wall Street banks, the Treasury says the payouts for insurers such as New York-based American International Group Inc. will end with a small loss on investment, as will the bailout for automakers. Only the assistance to mortgage lenders, projected to reach about $45 billion, will never be repaid, Treasury says.

The perceptions of voters about the performance of the economy are also at odds with official data. The recession that began in December 2007 officially ended in June 2009, making the 18-month stretch the longest since the Great Depression.

Economy Grows Again