“The populations are a little less happy about being badly governed,” Bremmer said. “They have smart phones, they’re empowered, and they have the ability to say no. As a consequence, we have failed states in Syria and Libya and Yemen and Iraq and Afghanistan.”
While the U.S. is buffered because of its geography and Japan is protected by its homogeneous culture, China’s political system acts as a bulwark against instability.
“Because it’s not a problem for the U.S., China and Japan, there’s little pressure on those governments to do much about that,” Bremmer said. “Don’t you feel that in the election right now? It’s all about us first, not supporting the TPP.”
After long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, American voters are less likely to support military or financial aid abroad. Thus the U.S. can no longer intervene as states begin to collapse.
China, on the other hand, is building a sphere of influence through rapprochement like the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Bank, Bremmer said. “Our global footprint globally is decreasing, our allies are looking for alternatives, and at the forefront is China.”
Despite painting a bleak picture of the geopolitical situation, Bremmer allowed for some optimism regarding the future.
“This is a fascinating time to be alive and invested, it’s just a little more uncertain and volatile,” Bremmer said. “The more you understand these risks, the more you’re going to be willing to take risk and put money into play… these aren’t black swan risks, these are knowable risks and I suspect we’ll be talking more about them in our future conversations.”