Annual deliveries may reach 900 new jets within five years, said Brian Foley, a private aviation consultant who had headed marketing for Dassault Aviation SA, the Paris-based maker of Falcon jets. 

“I see no abatement. A lot of new users came into private aviation, and they won’t all stay, but some will,” Foley said. “This time I have hope that the industry will perform better.”

Denver-based Mesinger Jet Sales in the past has sent emails to potential customers showcasing the planes available for sale, but since the pandemic hit it’s blasting out emails in search of inventory. The market hasn’t been this lopsided on the number of buyers versus sellers for at least the 47 years that Jay Mesinger, the company’s founder, has been a private-jet broker.

“If you go to the inventory side, you’ll see there are zero for sale,” Mesinger said. 

The tight used-aircraft market is compelling customers to purchase new even if they have to wait a couple of years for delivery. Still, it will take manufacturers time to rev up their supply chains. 

Private jet shipments over the next decade are expected to total 7,400 at a value of $238 billion, according to the survey by Honeywell, which makes components from jet engines to cockpit controls for business aircraft. That’s higher than last year’s prediction of 7,300 worth $235 billion over 10 years. Still, that’s below a peak 2014 estimate of 9,450 jets valued at $280 billion.

Plane manufacturers are rolling out new jets with lots of bells and whistles in an attempt to stimulate sales. Dassault unveiled the Falcon 10X, the French company’s largest jet, in May. Bombardier has revamped a popular mid-sized jet that it’s now calling the Challenger 3500 and Gulfstream this month introduced two new jets -- a smaller variant of its G500 and a remake of the G650.

Flexjet says nine out of 10 recent first-time buyers of jet cards, which provide a set number of flying hours, have renewed their purchases. After the company suspended sales of jet cards to conserve capacity for its main business of selling partial aircraft ownership, 45% of those jet-card holders upped their commitment by taking on a three-year fractional lease.  

Wealthy private jet fliers are unlikely to give up their new-found creature comforts, Ricci said, so demand is unlikely to wane.

“It appears sticky.”