And the country has benefited from rising commodity prices in recent months, which helps explain why Russia's RTS equity benchmark index had zoomed more than 60% this year through May. That propelled the Market Vectors Russia ETF to a whopping 77% gain through May, a spectacular performance tempered by the realization that the fund lost nearly 74% in 2008.
Huge Middle Class
Within the BRICs, India is often compared to China. Whereas China has been growing about 10% annually, India has clocked in at 9% in recent years. And while both Asian neighbors have more than 1 billion people, India's rapid growth will make it larger in the not-so-distant future. And its young population, coupled with a growing middle class, make some people think that it could be the next China.
In reality, though, India still has some catching up to do. It needs to make a ton of infrastructure improvements to alleviate bottlenecks to economic growth. The government is trying to address this with a stimulus package of assorted tax breaks and pump-priming spending that amounts to more than 4% of GDP. And the country's messy democracy lacks the strong hand of a country like China that would enable it to ram through its economic agenda.
"A lot of people think of India as IT outsourcing, pharmaceuticals, gems and things like that," says Anupam Ghose, a partner at Indus Advisors, developer of the index underpinning the PowerShares India Portfolio fund. "Exports are a significant part of the story, but domestic consumption makes up 68% of GDP."
And a big driver of domestic consumption is the rising middle class, which is estimated at between 250 million to 400 million people. "Given the young population, that's a lot of people consuming on this scale for the first time," Ghose says.
India's stunning growth in recent years has created high valuations that worry some investors. Indeed, the country's pricey markets were pegged as a red flag even before the markets crashed last year. Its benchmark Sensex index fell 52% in 2008, as economic growth had slowed to 7% from 9% the prior year. This year through May, the Sensex was up 50%. By one measure, the market was recently valued at about 17 times trailing earnings-by far the highest valuation among the BRICs, even though the growth rate is expected to fall less than 5%.
But India's national election in mid-May gave investors a positive jolt with the surprisingly overwhelming victory by the pro-business Congress Party, which previously maintained power through a coalition with communists who frequently blocked its economic initiatives. Now armed with a clear mandate to govern on its own, the party should have a freer hand to enact its economic programs, such as selling more state-owned assets to raise needed cash and help bring down expanding deficits.
Only 8% Growth?
During a trip earlier this year to Guangdong province, China's export hub, fund manager Richard Gao stayed in a hotel that used to bustle with foreign businesspeople. "There were only about five or six people there this time," says Gao, lead manager of the Matthews China fund. "It was kind of scary."
The empty hotel was a metaphor for the state of China's export economy, long a key cog in the country's growth engine. According to one published report, export growth in Guangdong-located along the country's southern coast and home to scores of low-priced manufacturers-fell to 5.6% last year from 22.3% in 2007 in response to falling worldwide demand for goods. Rising unemployment loomed as thousands of Chinese workers lost their manufacturing jobs and returned to their rural heartland homes with no work and few prospects.
China's GDP tumbled last year, growing at "only" 9% after a quarter-century or so of average annual double-digit growth. In turn, Chinese financial markets nose-dived-the Shanghai Composite of A shares (open only to domestic investors and a limited number of qualified foreign institutional investors) plunged 65%; Hong Kong-listed H shares sank 48%.