Another day, another round of bad news highlighting the risk that the global economy is headed for a serious downturn.
China reported the weakest growth in industrial output since 2002. Germany’s economy shrank as exports slumped, and euro-area production plunged the most in more than three years as the overall expansion cooled. U.S. and U.K. bond markets sent their biggest recession warnings since the global financial crisis.
News from the economic giants dented the market relief in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to delay some tariffs on Beijing. European stocks declined on Wednesday and bonds rose. The gap between two-year and 10-year government debt in both the U.K. and U.S. fell below zero, a shift that typically predates a contraction.
With trade spats, cooling global demand and geopolitical crises all coalescing to hit growth, the world economy is heading for its weakest expansion since the financial crisis. Central banks have rushed in to provide support, with the U.S. Federal Reserve among those cutting interest rates in recent weeks. The European Central Bank is widely expected to follow next month.
The downturn is also ramping up pressure on governments to step up to the plate with fiscal stimulus.
The impact of trade tensions “on business uncertainty in terms of sapping export confidence and investment is bad, and that’s persisting,” said Mike Gallagher, head of strategy at Continuum Economics in London. “The broader thrust is still negative for the global economy as far as the trade position is concerned.”
German big-name companies from Siemens to Daimler have issued warnings about pressure on sales and political uncertainty. The economy’s 0.1% contraction , paired with a protracted slump in business expectations, is the result of what Citigroup described as an “unholy trinity” of China’s slowdown, U.S. trade wars and Brexit.
“In addition to the cyclical weakening of the global economy, especially in China, the fast-moving global trade conflict is damping growth,” said Alexander Krueger, chief economist at Bankhaus Lampe. “Unclear Brexit terms and growing geopolitical tensions also have a damping effect. All these factors are likely to weigh on economic activity.”
The weakness is already weighing heavily on the euro area, where France and Spain are also slowing and Italy’s situation looks increasingly dire. The latest numbers on Wednesday showed industrial production in the currency bloc plunged 1.6% in June. Economic growth slowed to 0.2% in the second quarter, half the pace of the previous three months.
In China, growth in industry slowed sharply to 4.8% from 6.3%. On Monday, the world’s second-largest economy reported a drop in credit-demand growth, adding pressure on Chinese officials to boost stimulus. In June, the government unveiled a plan to help spur demand for automobiles and electronics.