The talks on the future of Kyoto were deadlocked after existing members Russia, Canada and Japan said they won't make new emissions targets after 2012 because the accord doesn't set limits for the three biggest polluters: the U.S., which never ratified it, and developing nations China and India.

"Hopes have been ratcheted down," said Daniel Yergin, chairman of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates. "The notion that there is going to be a global compact on this have been pushed back," said the author of "The Prize," a history of the oil industry that won him a Pulitzer Prize in 1992.

'Bewildering' Rules

The wind-energy industry is now more focused on the "sometimes bewildering variety of domestic and regional policies" than on the UN negotiations as a source of impetus for growth, said Steve Sawyer, secretary-general of the Brussels-based Global Wind Energy Council.

As well as renewables spending exceeding that on new fossil plants, last year also was the first time expenditure in developing countries, mainly China, exceeded that in the industrialized world, Sawyer said, predicting both trends will continue.

The New Energy Finance figures exclude investment that merely replaces existing plants, and its renewables tally excludes money spent on building large hydropower projects.

Wind operators are likely to install 43 gigawatts of generating capacity this year and 48 gigawatts next year, up from 36 gigawatts in 2010, GWEC estimates.

New Energy Finance forecast solar installations globally to total 26.4 gigawatts in 2011 and 27.8 gigawatts in 2012, up from 18.2 gigawatts last year. Investment in renewable energy may double to $395 billion a year by 2020, led by growth in offshore wind and solar projects, the London-based analyst said Nov. 16.

Struggling Industry

Even with the boom, renewables companies are struggling. Growing demand for wind turbines and solar panels led to a surge in production. The resulting overcapacity forced companies from Chinese solar manufacturers Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. and Renesola Ltd. to U.S. rivals SunPower Corp. and First Solar along with Vestas of Denmark to slash forecasts for margins and sales this year. Recession in European nations has also held back demand.

"In some countries the actual energy consumption has gone down because of the financial crisis, and that means it's even more difficult to develop new projects," said Ditlev Engel, chief executive officer of Vestas, which is the world's biggest wind turbine maker.