Republican Claudia Tenney has a good news message about a robust U.S. economy for voters in her central New York congressional district. It’s a hard sell, though, in a region where jobs are disappearing and salary increases are small.
That’s created an opening for Democrats to target the first-term congresswoman -- an ardent supporter of President Donald Trump who voted for last year’s tax cuts and to repeal Obamacare -- in a key race that will help determine whether the GOP maintains control of the U.S. House.
"Gas is expensive, groceries are very expensive, any consumer good seems to be expensive," said Danielle Clemens, 47, who lives in Tenney’s district and edits a newspaper for seniors. Clemens said her family hasn’t seen benefits from the tax law and she’s backing Tenney’s challenger, Democratic state Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi.
The tale of two very different economies -- one national and one local -- goes to the core strategies of both political parties as they fight for control of Congress in the Nov. 6 elections, when every House seat and a third of those in the Senate will be on the ballot. An early skirmish in the battle for congressional control takes place Tuesday in central Ohio, where a special election is being held to fill an open seat in a longtime Republican stronghold. Four other states are holding primaries.
From battered industrial towns in New York to farmlands in central California, Democrats are highlighting regions that were struggling before Trump took office and haven’t bounced back. Republicans are focusing on the national economy and highlighting parts of the country that are booming.
Republicans say their policies, including their tax cut and regulatory rollbacks, have helped create a prosperous economy. Democrats, hoping to win at least 23 seats to gain control of the House, say economic growth is mainly helping businesses and the wealthy while the middle class struggles under sluggish wage growth and rising costs.
The Republicans’ argument is boosted by elevated confidence thanks to individual and corporate tax cuts on top of a long run of steady hiring, unemployment rates near the lowest level since 1969, second-quarter economic growth that was the strongest since 2014, and rising household wealth since Trump became president. The S&P 500 Index is up about 6.6 percent this year and is close to overtaking the longest bull run ever.
"The good economic news is going to give Republicans a strong tailwind heading into the midterm elections," said Minnesota GOP Representative Erik Paulsen, chairman of Congress’s Joint Economic Committee and a five-term incumbent facing a competitive re-election bid. "People always ask, ‘Are we better off than we were two years ago?’ And the answer is yes."
But Democratic candidates across the country are taking on incumbents like Tenney by saying that residents of their districts aren’t seeing big benefits. For instance, in California’s Central Valley, unemployment is well above the national average and rising gas prices are eating into disposable income gains resulting from the tax cuts. In Nebraska and Michigan districts, where jobs and manufacturing growth data show a stronger economy, Democrats say rising health-care costs caused by Republican policies are eating into gains.
"When I talk to people, they say they are not feeling the economic prosperity," said Senator Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, the top Democrat on the Joint Economic Committee. “Americans are not seeing the wage growth that they were promised from the tax cuts."