And it’s not all perception. Many Republicans likely do spend more on gas than Democrats.
While gasoline is often cheaper by the gallon in Republican-leaning states in the South than in Democratic strongholds like California, New Jersey and New York, households in rural areas have longer commutes than urban and suburban households. Men drive farther than women, and middle-aged households also drive more as they juggle work and family.
All those demographics tend to lean Republican.
Republicans also tend to drive bigger, less fuel-efficient cars. According to a survey of new vehicle purchases by market research firm Strategic Vision, the all-electric Tesla Model 3 skews more progressive than any other vehicle model. The model that skews most conservative is the Ford F-250/350 pickups.
Country Drive
Gas prices have long been viewed as a harbinger of broader inflation, and the nearly $2 trillion in coronavirus pandemic relief spending Biden has signed into law has exacerbated those fears.
But Curtin said those assumptions are steeped in the economics of the 1970s, when energy costs were a much higher percentage of the economy, cars were less fuel-efficient and the U.S. relied more on foreign oil.
Consumers also now accept gas prices as more variable, Curtin said. The cost invariably rises in the summer when people drive more and refineries switch to summer-blend fuels that reduce smog.
And the pandemic has only increased that volatility.
“For people who understand it as a supply and demand issue, they don’t see the president as responsible for the rise,” said Laurel Harbridge-Yong of Northwestern University, the primary author of the 2016 study on gas prices and presidential approval. “It’s not like the president can put his finger on the button and make gas prices go up or down.”
For the prices to be a liability for Biden, Republicans must do a better job connecting them to his policies, said David Winston, a Republican pollster and strategist who specializes in public opinion on pocketbook issues.
“It’s more than just what is the raw cost of gasoline? Has he done things policy-wise that has made the cost go up, not because of the ebb and flow of gas prices?” he said. “If people decide that’s the connection they’re going to make, that’s the problem.”
But if gasoline prices remain high into the fall, voters could start to hold Biden responsible.
“Right now this is a starting point where people are assessing what’s going on with gas prices,” Winston said. “I don’t know that there’s a magic number per se, but it’s probably closer to $4 a gallon.”
—With assistance from Ari Natter, Jennifer Epstein and Justin Sink.
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.