The Point?

If Taylor cannot identify a way to cash in given the current state of markets, investors may well wonder how many of the industry's 10,000-plus funds, most with a worse track record than Nevsky, could follow suit.

While funds close every year for a variety of reasons, largely poor performance, the prospect that more star performers may choose to give up would send shivers through the spine of other market investors, chief among them pension funds.

The trustees responsible for making sure millions of blue and white collar workers have enough to live on in retirement make up the bulk of the industry's investor base and many are hoping for outperformance to help plug gaping deficits.

That growing demand for so-called alternative investments like hedge funds is only likely to get more pronounced after a weak start to the year for equity markets, amid fears around global growth -- the Standard & Poor's 500 index of leading U.S. shares, for example, is down 8 percent.

The average annualized return from 351 hedge funds between October 2000 and December 2015, the years of Nevsky's operation, was 7.55 percent, data from industry tracker eVestment showed, while the average return in Nevsky's long-short equity peer group, which bets on stocks rising and falling, was 6.96 percent, net of fees.

Nevsky was in the top 3 percent of performers over the period, eVestment said.
While not all funds invest using the same methodology, the pressures Taylor cites would likely impact a range of funds and strategies.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs said it expected weak U.S. equity returns and negative bond market returns to weigh on hedge funds returns, with "modest" returns of around 4 percent over the next five years.

Twenty-five of the 57 respondents to the Reuters survey agreed or strongly agreed with Nevsky's idea that market risks were rising, with a further 10 on the fence; 21 felt passive and trend-following funds were having a detrimental impact on their ability to call the market, with 17 abstaining.

But 30 disagreed or strongly disagreed with Nevsky about the deteriorating quality of national and corporate data, with 13 neither agreeing nor disagreeing; while respondents were split 20 each way with 15 undecided on whether rising political nationalism was making macroeconomic calls harder to make.

On the crucial question of whether it is getting harder to outperform in the financial markets, the respondents were split again, 22 to 22, with 13 neither agreeing nor disagreeing.

"The idea that markets are somehow more dangerous and more difficult is rubbish," said a New York-based equity hedge fund manager. "It is possible that the manner in which Nevsky made his money has been impacted, but markets have always been changing.

"My guess is that he has been unhappy with performance, is frustrated, has made more than enough money and has decided to quit the game."

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