“Taxpayers often make their decisions on selling assets based on current tax rates as well as expected future tax rates, among other factors,” said Rockefeller’s Dadayan.

Anticipating a Cut

Mnuchin in January vowed that a tax cut—part of what he says will be the biggest overhaul since the 1980s—would not benefit the wealthiest Americans, who Trump has said reaped all the benefits of the economic recovery and left lower-income people in despair. More recently, Mnuchin has declined to guarantee that only middle-class taxpayers would receive a cut, saying he may need to make concessions to close a deal with Congress.

Even with a Republican-controlled Congress, advancing the time line for action on the debt limit will be difficult. Lawmakers are already grappling with two complicated and fraught debates: repeal and replacement of Obamacare and the tax overhaul. Both issues threaten to paralyze a Congress where consensus is already weak and mid-term elections next year loom large.

Shai Akabas, an analyst at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington, said that a reduction in income tax receipts probably isn’t enough to significantly hasten action on the debt ceiling.

“We don’t see enough evidence yet to show that the entire time-frame that we’re talking about has shifted,” he said. While the research group has cited “heightened volatility” in tax revenue this year, “it’s pretty unlikely that the government will run out of funds to make its payments in August,” Akabas said.

A debt-limit deal is divisive even within the political parties. Republicans are at odds over whether spending cuts should be part of an increase. Democrats, whose votes in the Senate are needed to avoid a default, may use that bargaining chip to demand other concessions. Some lawmakers are also rankled at Mulvaney, who has downplayed the dangers of a default.

Spooked Markets

Uncertainty from debt-limit standoffs can spook financial markets. The 2011 impasse contributed to S&P Global Rating’s decision to downgrade the U.S. credit rating. Higher borrowing costs ripple through to consumers.

Most analysts project that the government has until October or November to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, citing a mandatory payment from the Treasury to a military retirement trust between $50 billion and $100 billion that is due on Oct. 2.