For investors, the question is "irrelevant," Bernstein said. "The point of a recession is to rid the economy of excesses," he continued. "We're not even close to that."
He pointed to the ratio of job opernings to people looking for work, which stands at 1.8 openings for every job seeker. Historically, that figure is 0.6, one-third of where it is today.
Bernstein didn't say so, but that's likely a key why he and his team believe inflation is going to remain persistently higher than the markets expect. What he did say is that nagging inflationary pressures are likely to prompt the Fed to keep interest higher for longer than both the general consensus and stock market bulls are building into their outlooks.