It was a shocking, and seemingly improbable, figure.
Eight months into the pandemic -- and the brutal economic collapse it triggered -- California’s budget watchdog said the state was poised to pocket a windfall of some $26 billion. Just as New York and Connecticut had revealed weeks earlier, tax revenue was coming in at a clip no one expected, thanks in part to the booming stock market.
And so it has largely played out across the country this year, albeit to a smaller extent in many of the less well-to-do states. The fiscal apocalypse expected to blow massive holes in state budgets hasn’t come -- at least not yet.
This in turn is providing fuel to the argument made by some Republicans that additional federal aid for states and municipalities can wait until next year instead of being settled in the relief package that’s being heatedly debated in Washington now. Top leaders from both sides in Congress are near a deal for Covid relief of less than $900 billion, including direct stimulus payments but leaving out state and local aid, according to two people familiar with negotiations. That relief has been one of the key sticking points.
“In some ways, U.S. taxpayers have saved some money by the stimulus package being delayed so that they could really get their arms around what revenues look like,” said Jennifer Johnston, director of research for Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s municipal bond team.
There are several important caveats to this somewhat rosy picture, to be clear.
For one, many states and cities are still facing large deficits, just not as big as initially forecast. Also, the spike in Covid-19 cases could trigger more economic shutdowns, potentially reversing the nascent recovery that local governments have seen so far. Most of California is back under a stay-at-home order, and New York could be headed toward one. And because of the lag in collecting taxes, states historically struggle with big deficits well after recessions end.
Financial forecasts have improved considerably in recent months, though. In the spring, congressional Democrats had sought $1 trillion in aid for states and municipalities. Back then, states were expected to report total budget shortfalls of $650 billion through fiscal 2022; now that number is forecast at about $400 billion, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. And Democrats more recently were pushing for just $160 billion as a first step.
The muni bond market, buoyed by rock-bottom benchmark interest rates, also shows investors are unconcerned about a looming fiscal crisis. States including Pennsylvania, Michigan and California can all borrow for 10 years at rates well below 1%, a historically low threshold. Even a benchmark of near-junk Illinois debt yields just 2.76%, around the level reserved for only the highest-rated borrowers as little as two years ago.
California is a prime example of the turnaround in fiscal accounts. In May, it girded for a two-year $54 billion gap. It now projects only a $5 billion deficit next year after it reaped a $26 billion windfall from raking in more tax revenue and spending less than expected. New York City, once the epicenter of the coronavirus crisis, collected $985 million more revenue than forecast for the first four months of its fiscal year thanks to a banner year on Wall Street.