The proposed tax cuts in Pawlenty's plan are much larger than those proposed by House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and House Ways and Means Chairman Dave Camp of Michigan, both Republicans. They both want to keep federal revenue at the same level it would reach if Congress extended the expiring tax cuts indefinitely. Ryan and Camp have supported top corporate and individual rates of 25 percent, paired with cuts in tax breaks.
The study is imprecise because the researchers made some assumptions that might not match Pawlenty's proposal. For example, the analysis assumes that Pawlenty's plan would eliminate the alternative minimum tax. Conant said he would reduce AMT rates and index the exemption, causing fewer taxpayers to be affected by it than under current law.
Pawlenty, the 50-year-old former governor of Minnesota, said 5 percent annual average economic growth would help make up the revenue gap. Conant said such growth would be driven by the tax plan as well as by spending cuts, regulatory overhaul and monetary policy changes that Pawlenty is proposing.
'No Silver Bullet'
"Some of our critics are looking at just one segment of it in isolation, and that's sort of missing the point," Conant said. "There's no silver bullet to our economy. You need a comprehensive plan. That's what we're offering."
Hitting the 5 percent growth target won't be easy. The U.S. economy hasn't expanded by 5 percent in a single year since 1984.
"If that 5 percent becomes 4, 3, 2 or 1 percent, we're in deep doo-doo," Pawlenty said during a question-and-answer session after the June 7 speech. "So this isn't about whether some people are going to get wealthier or not. It's about what are those things that we need to do to make it more likely, not less likely, that businesses are going to start, grow, add employees, buy capital equipment, build buildings, conduct research and do all the things it takes to keep a private economy going."
Conant declined to identify the economists who are advising Pawlenty. The campaign plans to introduce its policy team in the coming weeks, he said.