U.S. GDP growth averaged 2.3% from 2013 through 2016, the same exact figure it recorded in 2017. And the two years with the weakest job growth in the last eight were 2010 and 2017, according to the news page of the WSJ, not the editorial page.

In both 2010 and 2017, the U.S. economy added just over 2 million jobs.The best year of the last nine was 2014, when the economy created just under 3 million jobs.

Job growth during Trump's first 18 months in office, when the economy created 193,000 jobs a month, is almost identical to Obama's last 18 months, when it added 206,000 jobs a month. Whatever side you are on, there is little question that this entire recovery has been distinguished by its length, not its strength.

But as Glenn Hubbard, who advised President George W. Bush and presidential candidate Mitt Romney, has noted, there is one area where Trump has outshined his predecessor without doubt. He is a far more exuberant cheerleader for both the economy and the stock market than Obama ever was.

Ever since President Trump was elected, Rosenberg has been predicting bad things will happen to the U.S. economy—ranging from a trade war to an accident triggered by the president’s freewheeling style. So far bad things haven't happened, even though it's been a wild ride. That said, Rosenberg wasn't exactly an optimist before the 2016 election.

But on one issue he seems to see eye-to-eye with Trump: Both think the Fed is overly aggressive, and Rosenberg believes a policy error by the U.S. central bank will cause the 2019 recession he anticipates.

Other economists believe this current quarter's GDP figure will be inflated by soybean purchases—America is the Saudi Arabia of soybeans and wheat—and excess inventory accumulations triggered by fears of trade tariffs. Go figure.

My own bet is that when second quarter GDP is announced it will exceed 5% for only the third time since 2000. The two other 5% quarters came in 2003 and 2014. Let’s just say this century hasn’t gotten off to a robust start.

July 27, 2018

Well, I was wrong. But 4.1% is still pretty good. Hopefully, it can just stay above 3% for the foreseeable future.