At least six House Republicans in high-tax states lost their seats Tuesday, defeated in part by voter frustration over the GOP tax law’s new cap on state and local tax deductions.
Two of the key players behind the tax overhaul -- Illinois’ Peter Roskam and Minnesota’s Erik Paulsen -- were among the six casualties. They sit on the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, whose Republican bench has been wiped out by losses, as well as retirements.
Ten of the 24 Republicans on the Ways and Means Committee won’t return to Congress next year -- in addition to Roskam and Paulsen, two members from low-tax states lost their re-election bids and six more decided to retire or run for other office. The loss of many of the committee’s top lawmakers means the GOP will need to rebuild members’ expertise in tax, trade and health-care issues.
President Donald Trump blamed Roskam and Paulsen’s losses on their decisions to distance themselves from him. “Peter Roskam didn’t want the embrace, Erik Paulsen didn’t want the embrace,” Trump said Wednesday during a press conference, where he listed other Republicans who were defeated because he said they didn’t want his support.
Other high-tax state Republican losers on Tuesday include Claudia Tenney, a New York Republican, who lost her bid in an upstate district. She initially opposed the so-called SALT cap before eventually voting “yes” for the tax law. Even though New York’s Dan Donovan and John Faso, and New Jersey’s Leonard Lance voted “no” for the bill, it wasn’t enough to deny the connection for voters between their party and the SALT limit.
Voter Frustration
Roskam and Paulsen helped craft the 2017 bill and continued to support it even after a controversial provision was included to limit deductions to $10,000. Previously, they were unlimited. The lawmakers had hoped campaigning on the tax law’s other benefits, such as lower rates for individuals and more generous child tax credits, could offset voter frustration over the new cap.
The race for the seat held by Tom MacArthur, the only New Jersey Republican to vote for the tax law, is still too close to call. The average SALT amount for a New Jersey resident in 2015 was $17,850, according to data from the Pew Charitable Trusts. The New Jersey Star-Ledger editorial board cited the SALT change as a key reason for endorsing MacArthur’s Democratic opponent, Andy Kim.
The inclusion of the provision was a crucial trade-off for the tax law to comply with Senate budget rules. It effectively raised taxes on many middle and high earners in high-tax states, such as New York, New Jersey and Illinois.
Roskam, who served as the House Ways and Means tax policy subcommittee chairman during the tax overhaul process, hails from a suburban Chicago district where the counties are some of the highest taxed in the state.