• September 21, 2016: Bank of Japan Meeting
• September 21, 2016: FOMC decision, Yellen press conference and new FOMC economic forecast.
FEDERAL RESERVE
Fed Chair Janet Yellen will address the Kansas City Fed’s annual Monetary Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, WY on August 26, 2016. Yellen skipped the meeting last year, but in the past, her predecessors — notably Ben Bernanke — have used Jackson Hole as a launching pad for new policies. Bernanke famously hinted at the Fed’s second round of quantitative easing (QE2) in August 2010 and hinted at QE3 at the Jackson Hole symposium in 2012. If the pre-August 26, 2016, data and events we discussed above have lined up on the side of a September hike, we expect to see:
• Stable oil prices and improved manufacturing data
• Looser financial conditions
• Solid readings on the labor market and inflation
Ongoing concord among global central banks Fed Chair Yellen may lay out the case for a September rate hike. If the data are mixed — or worse — Yellen may have to deliver an entirely different message at Jackson Hole.
John Canally is chief economic strategist for LPL Financial.