“Even on the issue of tax refunds, it’s become politicized,” he said.

The GOP has some facts on its side. The number of refunds issued is down only 3.3 percent. And about 80 percent of filers received a tax cut under the new law, which lowered income tax rates and about doubled the standard deduction to $24,000 for a couple, according to estimates from the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

Yet the changes in withholding, which resulted in slightly higher paychecks, and the minimizing of popular write-offs, such as capping the deduction for state and local taxes at $10,000, made the changes more subtle than the arrival of a refund check.

Extra money may not seem like that much if it’s doled out in small amounts.

“It’s hard to diet if there is candy on the counter every Friday,” said Richard LeVine, a tax lawyer at Withers Bergman.

Americans seem to like to keep the candy out of sight until the spring refund season. The argument that the refund cycle means people are giving an interest-free loan to the government falls on deaf ears when the refund allows people to make a significant payment on a debt or pay for a vacation.

A poll done by Bankrate in 2015 shows that most Americans want a refund, ranging from 57 percent for those earning less than $30,000 to 63 percent for those earning between $50,000 and $74,999. And 53 percent of those who earn more than $75,000 prefer those springtime windfalls.

“Irrational as it might be, big refunds seem to be something that many households are comfortable with,” Nancy Van Houten, an economist at Oxford Economics, said. “People view it as savings that they wouldn’t save otherwise.”

Ultimately, it’s not yet known exactly how refunds will compare to last year. The IRS has issued about 53.5 million refunds, approximately 40 percent of the total anticipated for the year, as of March 8. National Taxpayer Advocate Nina Olson has said people who have a liability tend to file later, so the refund data could become bleaker as the filing season wears on.

Republicans have consistently lost the messaging battle on the tax overhaul. An internal Republican National Committee poll from before the 2018 midterm elections concluded that by a 2-to-1 margin, voters believe the changes helped the wealthy more than the average American.