The past week has seen continued improvement, with the case growth rate down to new lows and case growth below 30,000 per day for the first time since June 21. The pandemic remains under control, and things are still getting better. The control measures are working.
At the national level, as of September 10, the daily spread rate is 0.5% per day, close to a new low and down over the previous two weeks. The seven-day average of the daily number of new cases was just over 37,000, down from just over 42,000 last week. The continued improvement in both the case growth rate and new cases is a positive.
The testing news was mixed. The number of tests bounced around over the past two weeks, but it was generally steady at around 700,000 per day. This testing level is likely insufficient. But with the drop in new and active cases, the positive testing rate has continued to decline and is now around the recommended 5%. This is a metric that will need to improve; nonetheless, signs are it may be sufficient at the moment to keep the virus under control.
Beyond the headline numbers, state-level data is generally good, although concerns remain about states in the Midwest. Overall, the national risks remain under control.
With the medical news better, the economic recovery remains on track, albeit with some areas of concern. One worth watching is consumer confidence and spending, with signs of weakness. Financial markets continue to move higher in response to the positive medical developments. But here, too, recent turbulence may be a sign of future weakness. Let’s take a look at the details.
Pandemic Growth Rate Still At Low Levels
Growth rate. The daily case growth rate has continued to trend down. It reached a pandemic low last week and ended the reporting period at 0.5% per day, down from 0.7% per day the previous week. The dropping spread rate is a positive sign, leading directly to dropping daily new case counts even as the total number of cases continues to grow. At this rate, the case-doubling period is up to over 20 weeks, leaving the infection curve flat at a national level and leaving the risk to health care systems at a low level.
Daily testing rate. As infections have dropped, testing remains steady although variable, and it has stayed in the range of around 700,000 per day. This appears to be below the level of testing needed to develop a full understanding of the pandemic, despite the recent improvements in the spread rate.
Positive test results. That said, the positive rate on tests has continued trending down and is approaching an acceptable level. If we look at the percentage of each day’s tests that are positive, lower numbers are better, as we want to be testing everyone and not just those who are obviously sick. The World Health Organization recommends a target of 5% or lower, which we are getting close to achieving again. The pandemic spread may be approaching the level where current testing is adequate.