3. Indications that the isolationist tone of the U.S. presidential primaries is more than just rhetoric and posturing, but signals a decisive change in decades of U.S. leadership for economic and financial globalization.
4. Large exchange rate moves that, by reflecting wider divergences in the world’s multispeed economic and policy conditions, spread volatility to financial markets as a whole.
5. A renewed scare about the European banks that have lagged in raising capital and strengthening internal operating approaches and have yet to put behind them the legacy of a period of excessive risk-taking.
6. Greater risk aversion among market participants who -- acting on their confidence that central banks are prepared to continuously step in to ensure stability -- now have taken on significant mismatches of maturities, assets to liabilities, benchmarks or currencies in their search for higher returns. And this is occurring in markets that have tended to experience periodic bouts of relative illiquidity.
Mohamed El-Erian is chief economic advisor at Allianz SE.